Modeling strict age-targeted mitigation strategies for COVID-19

Speaker: Wesley Pegden

Date: Wed, Apr 22, 2020

Location: PIMS, University of British Columbia, Zoom

Conference: Mathematical Biology Seminar

Subject: Mathematics, Mathematical Biology

Class: Scientific


In this talk, we will use compartmental models to examine the power of age-targeted mitigation strategies for COVID-19. We will present evidence that, in the context of strategies which end with herd immunity, age-heterogeneous strategies are better for reducing direct mortalities across a wide parameter regime. And using a model which integrates empirical data on age-contact patterns in the United States and recent estimates of COVID-19 mortality and hospitalization rates, we will present evidence that age-targeted approaches have the potential to greatly reduce mortalities and ICU utilization for COVID-19, among strategies which ultimately end the epidemic by reaching herd immunity. This is joint work with Maria Chikina.