From 1918 to 2020: Analyzing the past and forecasting the Future

Speaker: David Earn, Jonathan Dushoff

Date: Wed, Jul 8, 2020

Location: Zoom, PIMS, University of British Columbia, McMaster University

Conference: Mathematical Biology Seminar

Subject: Mathematics, Mathematical Biology

Class: Scientific


Comparisons are constantly being made between the 1918 influenza pandemic and the present COVID-19 pandemic. We will discuss our previous work on influenza pandemics, and the tools we have used to understand the temporal patterns of those outbreaks. Applying similar tools to the COVID-19 pandemic is easier in some respects and harder in others. We will describe our current approach to modelling the spread of COVID-19, and some of the challenges and limitations of epidemic forecasting.