Applied

• Climatology (What’s normal?)
• Basic properties of El Niño
• Linear Inverse Modeling
• Non-normal growth and the optimal structure
• Short scales: What constitutes stochastic forcing?
• Long scales: Connection between El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

An exposition about waves and PDEs for the equatorial atmosphere and ocean.

This paper studies models for discrete outcomes which permit explanatory variables to be endogenous. In these models there is a single nonadditive latent variate which is restricted to be locally independent of instruments. The models are incomplete; they are silent about the nature of dependence between the latent variate and the endogenous variable and the role of the instrument in this relationship. These single equation IV models which, when an outcome is continuous, can have point identifying power, have only set identifying power when the outcome is discrete. Identification regions vary with the strength and support of instruments and shrink as the support of a discrete outcome grows. The paper extends the analysis of structural quantile functions with endogenous arguments to cases in which there are discrete outcomes.

In the network externality literature, little, if any attention has been paid to the process through which consumers coordinate their adoption decisions. The primary objective of this paper is to discover how effectively rational individuals manage to coordinate their choices in a sequential choice framework. Since individuals make their choices with minimal information in this setting, perfect coordination will rarely be achieved, and it is therefore of some interest to discern both the extent to which coordination may be achieved, and the expected cost of the failure to achieve perfect coordination. We discover that when it counts, that is when the network externality is large, a substantial amount of coordination is achieved, and although perfect coordination is never guaranteed, expected relative efficiency is large.