Fast spread of SARS-CoV-2 in China, Europe and the US

Ruian Ke
Mon, Jun 22, 2020
CAIMS - PIMS Coronavirus Modelling Conference

SARS-CoV-2 is a novel pathogen causes the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of the basic epidemiological parameters, such as the exponential epidemic growth rate and R0 are debated. We collected and analyzed data from China, eight European countries and the US using a variety of inference approaches. In all countries, the early epidemic grew exponentially at rates between 0.19-0.29/day (epidemic doubling times between 2.4-3.7 days). I will discuss the appropriate serial intervals to estimate the basic reproductive number R0 and argue that existing evidence suggests a highly infectious virus with an R0 likely between 4.0 and 7.1. Further, we found that similar levels of intervention efforts are needed, no matter the goal is mitigation or containment. Early, strong and comprehensive intervention efforts to achieve greater than 74-86% reduction in transmission are necessary.