Geometric aspects of arithmetic statistics - 1 of 2

Arithmetic statistics asks about the distribution of objects arising “randomly” in number-theoretic context. How many A_5-extensions of Q are there whose discriminant is a random squarefree integer? How big is the Selmer group fo a random quadratic twist of an elliptic curve over Q? How likely is the the maximal extension of Q unramified away from a random set of 3 primes to be an extension of infinite degree? Traditionally we ask these questions over Q or other number fields, but they make sense, and are expected to have broadly similar answers, when we replace Q with the function field of a curve over a finite field F_q. Having done this, one suddenly finds oneself studying the geometric properties of relevant moduli spaces over F_q, and under ideal circumstances, the topology of the corresponding moduli spaces over the complex numbers. Under even more ideal circumstances, results in topology can be used to derive theorems in arithmetic statistics over function fields. I’ll give an overview of this story, including some recent results in which the arrow goes the other way and analytic number theory can be used to prove results about the geometry of moduli spaces.

This is the first lecture in a two part series: part 2.