The circle method and the cohomology of moduli spaces of rational curves

The cohomology of the space of degree d holomorphic maps from the complex projective line to a sufficiently nice algebraic variety is expected to stabilize as d goes to infinity. The limit is expected to be the cohomology of the double loop space, i.e. the space of degree d continuous maps from the sphere to that variety. This was shown for projective space by Segal, and there has been further subsequent work. In joint work with Tim Browning, we give a new approach to the problem for smooth affine hypersurfaces of low degree (which should also work for projective hypersurfaces, complete intersections, and/or higher genus curves), based on methods from analytic number theory. We take an argument of Birch that solves the number-theoretic analogue of this problem and translate it, step by step, into the language of ell-adic sheaf theory using the sheaf-function dictionary. This produces a spectral sequence that computes the cohomology, whose degeneration would imply that the rational compactly-supported cohomology matches that of the double loop space.