Mathematics

In this talk, we will use compartmental models to examine the power of age-targeted mitigation strategies for COVID-19. We will present evidence that, in the context of strategies which end with herd immunity, age-heterogeneous strategies are better for reducing direct mortalities across a wide parameter regime. And using a model which integrates empirical data on age-contact patterns in the United States and recent estimates of COVID-19 mortality and hospitalization rates, we will present evidence that age-targeted approaches have the potential to greatly reduce mortalities and ICU utilization for COVID-19, among strategies which ultimately end the epidemic by reaching herd immunity. This is joint work with Maria Chikina.

In this talk I will present a "dynamical paradigm" for modeling networks of interacting genes and proteins that regulate every aspect of cell physiology. The paradigm is based on dynamical systems theory of nonlinear ODEs, especially one- and two-parameter bifurcation diagrams. I will show how we have used this paradigm to unravel the mechanisms controlling "multiple fission" cycles in the photosynthetic green alga Chlamydomonas. While most eukaryotic cells maintain a characteristic size by executing binary division after each mass doubling, Chlamydomonas cells can grow more than eight-fold during daytime before undergoing rapid cycles of DNA replication, mitosis and cell division at night, which produce up to 16 daughter cells. We propose that this unusual strategy of growth and division (which is clearly advantageous for a photosynthetic organism) can be governed by a size-dependent bistable switch that turns on and off a limit cycle oscillator that drives cells through rapid cycles of DNA synthesis and mitosis. We show that this simple ‘sizer-oscillator’ arrangement reproduces the experimentally observed features of multiple-fission cycles and the response of Chlamydomonas cells to different light-dark regimes. Our model makes unexpected predictions about the size-dependence of the time of onset of cell-cycle oscillations after cells are transferred from light to dark conditions, and these predictions are confirmed by single-cell experiments.

Collaborators: Stefan Heldt and Bela Novak (Oxford Univ) on the modeling; Fred Cross (Rockefeller Univ) on the experiments.

Joy Morris (University of Lethbridge, Canada)

A natural way to understand groups visually is by examining objects on which the group has a natural permutation action. In fact, this is often the way we first show groups to undergraduate students: introducing the cyclic and dihedral groups as the groups of symmetries of polygons, logos, or designs. For example, the dihedral group $D_8$ of order 8 is the group of symmetries of a square. However, there are some challenges with this particular example of visualisation, as many people struggle to understand how reflections and rotations interact as symmetries of a square.

Every group G admits a natural permutation action on the set of elements of $G$ (in fact, two): acting by right- (or left-) multiplication. (The action by right-multiplication is given by $\left{t_g : g \in G\right}, where $t_g(h) = hg$ for every $h \in G$.) This action is called the "right- (or left-) regular representation" of $G$. It is straightforward to observe that this action is regular (that is, for any two elements of the underlying set, there is precisely one group element that maps one to the other). If it is possible to find an object that can be labelled with the elements of $G$ in such a way that the symmetries of the object are precisely the right-regular representation of $G$, then we call this object a "regular representation" of $G$.

A Cayley (di)graph $Cay(G,S)$ on the group $G$ (with connection set $S$, a subset of $G$) is defined to have the set $G$ as its vertices, with an arc from $g$ to $sg$ for every $s$ in $S$. It is straightforward to see that the right-regular representation of $G$ is a subset of the automorphism group of this (di)graph. However, it is often not at all obvious whether or not $Cay(G,S)$ admits additional automorphisms. For example, $Cay(Z_4, {1,3})$ is a square, and therefore has $D_8$ rather than $Z_4$ as its full automorphism group, so is not a regular representation of $Z_4$. Nonetheless, since a regular representation that is a (di)graph must always be a Cayley (di)graph, we study these to determine when regular representations of groups are possible.

I will present results about which groups admit graphs, digraphs, and oriented graphs as regular representations, and how common it is for an arbitrary Cayley digraph to be a regular representation.

Dynamical systems concepts have mostly been developed to understand the behaviour of autonomous, i.e. input-free, nonlinear systems. Even in this case, it is well recognized that such systems can display a wide range of dynamical behaviours. Understanding how non-autonomous systems behave is an additional mathematical challenge that gives insight into how complex systems can perform computational activities in response to inputs. In this talk I will discuss ways that the dynamics of network attractors can be used to describe and predict not only the how the systems perform computations, but also how they may make errors during the computations.

Speaker Biography

Peter Ashwin is Professor of Mathematics at the University of Exeter (UK) since 2007. His main interests are in nonlinear dynamical systems and applications: bifurcation theory and dynamical systems, especially synchronization problems, symmetric chaotic dynamics, spatially extended systems and nonautonomous systems. Applications of dynamical systems include climate (bifurcations, tipping points), fluids (bifurcations and mixing), laser systems (synchronization), neural systems (computational properties), materials and electronic systems (digital signal processing) and biophysical modelling (cell biology).

In meiosis, DNA is copied from parents to offspring, so that individuals who share common ancestors may have identical DNA copies from those ancestors through repeated meiosis. This identical-by-descent (IBD) DNA underlies the similarities between relatives, at both the family level and at the population level. However, the process of meiosis is quite variable, and DNA is inherited generation-to-generation in large segments. The patterns of IBD genome among relatives are complex, and in remote relatives segments of IBD DNA are rare but not short. Modern genetic data on millions of markers across the genome allows estimation of shared DNA, but accurate estimation requires modelling the processes that give rise to these complex IBD patterns. IBD must be estimated jointly among individuals and across the genome. Pedigree information, if available, provides prior probabilities of IBD patterns. Where inferred IBD is discordant with pedigree information, there is potential to detect selection or other processes distorting the outcomes of the meiotic process.

Speaker Biography: Elizabeth Thompson received her B.A. and Ph.D. in mathematics from Cambridge University, UK. After postdoctoral work in genetics at Stanford University, she joined the mathematics faculty of the University of Cambridge in 1976. She was a Professor of Statistics at the University of Washington from 1985 until her (semi-) retirement in 2018. Her research is in the development of methods for model-based likelihood inference from genetic data on both humans and other species, including inference of relationships among individuals and among populations. Dr. Thompson has received an Sc.D degree from the University of Cambridge, the Jerome Sacks award for cross-disciplinary statistical research, the Weldon Prize for contributions to Biometric Science, and a Guggenheim fellowship. She is an honorary fellow of Newnham College, Cambridge, and an elected member of the International Statistical Institute, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the US National Academy of Sciences.